In the case of Mars, there was always the promise of a city built on another world. Reusable rockets, heavy launchers, orbital fueling systems, and even the cashflow generated by Starlink have all supported the dream of a settlement in a distant star system. But what has changed is the time scale. Elon Musk recently announced that SpaceX is shifting its efforts toward creating a self-growing city on the Moon, as the endeavor can be accomplished within less than ten years, while reaching Mars will take twice as much.
For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years, he wrote on his official X account. And yes, SpaceX’s goal of extending consciousness and life as we know it to the stars has not changed.
Indeed, there is no difference between the long-term vision of SpaceX; however, the new priorities are based upon pragmatic considerations. Mars is much farther away from Earth, and reaching there would require several years of preparation for each individual mission. On the contrary, the Moon can be reached quickly and relatively frequently due to its proximity to Earth. Moreover, the distance between Earth and the Moon allows traveling from one celestial body to another in just two days.
This approach can help to develop a self-sustained civilization, as it would be possible to send a spacecraft to the Moon and retrieve it back in the case of some failures and problems. Besides, SpaceX should learn how to operate the Starship HLS lunar lander on the Moon to ensure the safety and effectiveness of future trips to Mars. In other words, the Moon is already where SpaceX must prove long-duration operations, docking, surface access, life support, and especially the still-unfinished challenge of ship-to-ship propellant transfer.
SpaceX is currently developing its HLS lunar lander, which will play an essential role in implementing the mission of delivering the crew to the Moon’s surface and bringing them back to Earth. Thus, it is not surprising that SpaceX decided to conduct tests on the Moon before starting the mission to Mars. Indeed, the lunar missions can allow SpaceX to conduct experiments and tests of their technologies, thus ensuring that the mission to Mars will be conducted safely.
In recent years, NASA has also revised its plans concerning the construction of bases on the Moon. According to the latest data, the first crewed mission will be launched during Artemis IV in 2028. This decision was made to ensure that the agency will conduct enough research on the lunar orbit before sending humans to the Moon’s surface. Moreover, NASA wants to introduce a unified plan of missions to ensure that there would be no mistakes or failures.
Musk has recently clarified that his company is shifting priorities from Mars to the Moon due to concerns that Earth may fail to resupply Martian settlements if it encounters some problems with providing assistance to Mars colonies. However, Musk also noted that the development of the Mars missions would continue, although not at the same pace.