When it’s supposed to be the hard part it’s supposed to look like lift off. What is your big rocket?What is your very big rocket? That was done as it happened at the right time, but the step into space environment is just the first step towards becoming a repeatable space operator for Starship V3.
After less than 3 months on a fresh new experimental Starship variant, SpaceX finally launched them from its new pad in New South Texas and it was pretty obvious there were problems right from the beginning but it was great that they finally gave the program a new level and a even bigger one. Version 3 is NOT only taller or stronger. It’s the mission envisioned to move the architecture SpaceX has been touting, mostly since last year, including a rapidly growing and notable one: orbital refueling, NASA’s plans for the moon, and much more, and the company’s vision for rapid turnaround at a myriad of heavy-lifts.
The first thing that needs to be overcome is not philosophical. It’s a procedural and technical. The Starship simply will not be able to continue rolling to the next mission so readily going forward because on May 22, the booster recovered from the last mission was mishandled, which has also resulted in an FAA mishap investigation. Important because the collection of flight data is done at an appropriate time to serve V3. SpaceX has universally trained a strategy of repetition and the subsequent milestones in Starship’s journey are bound to become believable only after they’ve been repeated.
The largest of those moments hasn’t been a splashdown. There it is, the way ships work, transporting fuel in low orbit. This is where NASA has already stated this is the pivot point with regards to the lunar version of Starship. “We have to get on top of this propellant transfer problem. It is the right problem to try and solve. We’re trying to build a blueprint for deep space exploration,” which is a right problem to try and solve, the agency’s exploration chief Amit Kshatriya said, adding that this was one we have to get on top of. Because one test flight score card is secondary to V3. When the Starship is outfitted with additional fuel, it’s not a Moon-bound Starship. It’s a spacecraft that has to get to orbit, then move to another craft, attach to it, then get off with still useful margins of boil-off as it transfers methane and oxygen, and then finally get off of Earth orbit with margins of cryogenic fluid boil-off.
That sequence was used as the impetus to include docking hardware in the former V1, further fuel tanks, engine modifications, and plumbing changes to accommodate operation in orbit for a longer duration, thereby creating V3. NASA’s plans are ultimately based solely on the assumption that that’s the refueling demo will be successfully accomplished during a pair of missions spaced apart by a couple of weeks, and the first mission will be a target for the second mission as a tanker. The transfer will be achieved by a pressure differential, not by pumps; further insulation and vacuum jacketed lines will try to minimise the cryogenic losses. Anytime they send a rocket up, they can assemble it to get it to land on the moon. There is a high chance for Artemis success, with around 10 lunar landing profiles being connected to some number of tanker launches, and some NASA planning even using a larger number amounting to the amounts of boils off and reserves.
Another hurdle to the headline-maker refueling is the difficulty getting the required airspace permissions. It also must expand its functionality from only a launch platform to an outpost capable of lunar crew boarding as well as delivering food and air to the astronauts: SpaceX has already had to test systems to get the astronauts in and out for its cabin ECS in orbit, after all, as a lander that reaches orbit and fails to support crew members and provide them a safe entry to the surface is only an expensive demonstrator project. This is the line of reasoning, which continues beyond this. Refueling the orbiter is one of the most important steps for any credible vehicle design on Mars that will use Starship, long-stay and surface operations, and finally propellant production using water ice on Mars.
In the next chapter, then, which V3 of Starship needs to read, the rest of it becomes a bit more about how to not just fly but make them more of an infrastructure. Having the largest rocket get off the ground makes a splash. It’s also the potential for it to become a reusable, refuelable spaceflight package that will be the crucial factor in determining program viability or an endless test campaign.