US Missile Shortage Could Leave Germany Waiting Five Years for Tomahawks

Germany could wait as long as five years for U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and their ground-based Typhon launchers as the United States rebuilds depleted inventories. American and European officials reportedly say RTX subsidiary Raytheon is unlikely to fulfill the proposed German order sooner because available missiles and factory output are constrained.

The possible delay reaches beyond one procurement. European countries want more American missiles for deterrence and air defense, Ukraine is seeking additional Patriot interceptors, and the Pentagon must restore its own reserves after heavy wartime use. Japan was told in April that its Tomahawk deliveries could be delayed by up to two years, while officials also reported delays affecting some Eastern European operators of U.S. weapons.

An official accounting now gives the production crunch a concrete scale. A Defense Department inspector general report described munitions shortfalls and supply-chain bottlenecks after the Iran war. It counted $22.3 billion in expended munitions during the period covered, while the Pentagon said it was working to shorten procurement and production lead times and stockpile critical materials, components and selected weapons.

Missile orders move faster than missile factories

A government can approve a purchase quickly, but a missile production network cannot expand on the same schedule. Cruise missiles and air-defense interceptors depend on propulsion, guidance hardware, electronics, seekers, energetic materials and final assembly. Output rises only when enough capacity is available across those stages together.

This creates two related constraints. The United States has fewer missiles readily available to transfer, and its factories have limited annual capacity to replace what has been used. Changing delivery priorities can move one customer ahead of another, but it cannot immediately increase the total supply.

Publicly discussed production lead times show why replenishment can take years. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated production timelines of about 42 months for the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptor and 53 months for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptor, according to Military Times. Those estimates describe long manufacturing pipelines even before governments account for existing orders and allocation decisions.

The Pentagon asked contractors in August to propose faster delivery schedules, facility expansions and capital investments for 16 critical programs. It has not publicly disclosed how many companies responded or what timelines they offered. That leaves allies with announced expansion goals but limited visibility into when those goals will become delivered missiles.

Patriot expansion is large but not immediate

Lockheed Martin is working to raise annual production of the advanced Patriot interceptor from approximately 600 to 2,000. The 2,000 figure is a target rather than a current production rate. Supporting that expansion, Boeing secured an approximately $14.7 billion Pentagon agreement to triple production of the interceptor’s seekers, with work spread across seven years.

The duration is revealing. More seekers help only if rocket motors, control hardware, electronics, housings and final assembly increase in step. One effort did move rapidly at the component level: GM Defense delivered initial Patriot interceptor housing components 22 days after signing a production contract with Lockheed. A fast first delivery from an additional supplier, however, is one part of a much larger production system.

Ukraine’s requirement is more immediate than the factory expansion. The United States continues transferring weapons purchased by European allies through NATO and European Union initiatives, while European representatives intend to seek more Patriot missiles and permission to manufacture them in Europe. Additional allocations and a European production arrangement have not been finalized.

Germany is seeking an industrial role

Germany’s defense ministry is preparing to earmark nearly €3.4 billion for Tomahawks and Typhon launchers, according to government planning reviewed by Politico. Berlin also wants European manufacturers included in the supply chain, but no production model or division of work has been agreed, and Washington would retain control over sensitive technology.

The United States is already pursuing a multi-year Navy partnership with L3Harris to expand production capacity for Tomahawk components. The arrangement covers work involving the missile’s Mk 135 solid-propellant booster and blast-fragmentation warhead, two elements within the broader Raytheon-led production chain.

European participation could eventually add suppliers and manufacturing depth. Licensing, technology controls, workforce qualification and long-term purchasing commitments make that a capacity strategy rather than a near-term source of missiles. Until expansion reaches the entire supplier network, Germany’s Tomahawk request, Ukraine’s Patriot needs, deliveries to Japan and U.S. reserve replenishment will continue drawing on the same constrained industrial base.

By David Whitaker — Associate editor for AMI’s aerospace and drone systems desk, translating flight systems, aircraft programs, spaceflight, and UAV developments into accessible technical stories.