Navy Retires 616-Missile Ohio Subs Before Smaller Virginia Replacements Arrive
The U.S. Navy has reclassified 19 planned Virginia Payload Module submarines as guided-missile submarines, but that force change does not erase the near-term math. The four retiring Ohio-class guided-missile submarines could collectively carry as many as 616 Tomahawks, and the first Virginia replacement under the new designation is not estimated for delivery until fiscal 2029.
That makes this less a naming story than a magazine-depth and timing problem. The Navy is moving from a small number of very large undersea missile carriers to a larger number of boats with much lower missile capacity per hull, while some of the existing launch capacity is already leaving service.
One Ohio boat still outweighs one Virginia by a wide margin
The comparison is straightforward. Each Ohio SSGN carries up to 154 Tomahawks in 22 seven-round canisters. A Virginia fitted with the Virginia Payload Module has an official maximum of 40 missiles total: 12 forward and 28 in the added module. On that basis, one VPM-equipped Virginia falls 114 Tomahawk positions short of one Ohio SSGN.
That is why replacing the Ohio boats is not a one-for-one exercise. Four Virginia SSGNs would provide 160 positions, only slightly more than one Ohio boat at full capacity. Looking only at the added VPM section, 19 modules contribute 532 positions, still short of the 616 Tomahawk positions carried by the four-boat Ohio SSGN force. Using that same added-payload comparison, replacing all 616 Ohio positions would require 22 VPM boats.
The Navy’s long-term plan is larger in total hull count, but it spreads strike capacity across many submarines and many years. The future USS Arizona, designated SSGN-803, remains under construction, and the Navy estimates delivery in fiscal 2029. The other 18 reclassified boats are expected through fiscal 2038.
The gap is already opening
As of August 8, three Ohio SSGNs remain operational after USS Georgia began inactivation at the end of July. Those three boats can carry up to 462 Tomahawks. Georgia’s departure alone removes another potential 154-round undersea magazine.
The retirement schedule keeps tightening the timeline. Under the current plan, Ohio leaves in fiscal 2027, Florida in fiscal 2028, and Michigan in fiscal 2029. No public schedule shows Arizona completing trials and reaching an operational deployment before Michigan enters recycling, which is the core of the gap: the legacy boats are exiting before the first lower-capacity successor is expected to join the force.
This pressure is not limited to submarines. Seven Ticonderoga-class cruisers remain in service, with 854 Mk 41 cells among them, and those ships are also scheduled to retire across fiscal 2026 through 2028. USS Shiloh and USS Lake Erie are scheduled to leave on September 30, 2026. The Navy shipbuilding plan then places Princeton, Robert Smalls, Gettysburg, and Chosin in fiscal 2027, followed by Cape St. George in fiscal 2028.
For a general reader, the practical point is simple: the Navy is not only losing missiles, it is losing launchers. As of August 8, the remaining seven cruisers and three Ohio SSGNs account for as many as 1,316 Tomahawk-capable launch positions, split between 854 cruiser cells and 462 submarine positions. That total is far below the earlier combined maximum of 3,300 launch positions across the vertical-launch cruiser force and all four Ohio SSGNs.
Production limits shape the replacement plan
The Navy’s answer is expensive and slow because the replacement force is being built inside an already strained submarine industrial base. The service recently awarded $42.1 billion for nine Block VI Virginia submarines and material for a tenth. Average cost estimates put a VPM-equipped Virginia at about $4.3 billion, while the Congressional Budget Office estimate is about $5.1 billion per boat. Applied mechanically to 19 submarines, that yields a rough range of $81.7 billion to $96.9 billion.
Even at that spending level, output remains the limiting factor. Shipbuilders are delivering about 1.3 Virginia-class boats per year, and production is not expected to reach two per year until around 2032. The same yards and many of the same suppliers are also building Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarines, which means the Navy is trying to expand one of its most complex shipbuilding programs while simultaneously recapitalizing another.
The missile side has its own bottleneck. The fiscal 2027 budget requests 785 Tomahawks, and Navy officials have acknowledged that producing that larger order will be difficult and will require heavy industrial investment. RTX has entered agreements lasting as long as seven years to push annual Tomahawk output above 1,000 missiles, but launcher capacity and missile inventory have to grow together for the replacement plan to fully matter.
The Navy’s redesignation of 19 VPM boats as SSGNs clarifies what those submarines are meant to do. It does not change the harder fact underneath: the service is retiring submarines that once carried 616 Tomahawks, and the first smaller replacement is still years from delivery.
By David Whitaker — Associate editor for AMI’s aerospace and drone systems desk, translating flight systems, aircraft programs, spaceflight, and UAV developments into accessible technical stories.
