Rostec Unit Forecasts 56 Billion Rubles in Anti-Drone Sales

Fifty-six billion rubles is Rosel’s estimate for Russian anti-drone-system sales in 2026, but the projected customer mix is as significant as the total. The Rostec subsidiary estimates that civilian companies will generate more than 60% of orders as energy producers, factories and other infrastructure operators spend on facility protection.

The assessment, reported by Kommersant on November 12, points to another 20% increase in 2027, when annual sales could reach 67 billion rubles. Rosel also says its order book extends several years ahead. These are company projections rather than completed sales, but they describe a market increasingly shaped by civilian infrastructure spending instead of military procurement alone.

Recurring Ukrainian drone attacks are the immediate demand driver. Energy and industrial companies are identified as the largest customers, while data centers, logistics complexes and transportation hubs also require protection. Yevgeny Vishnevsky, an expert with the National Technology Initiative, estimates that the fuel and energy sector may represent as much as 70% of orders.

Government pressure is reinforcing that demand. An August decree allows the Russian state to take temporary control of critically important infrastructure when its operators are judged to have provided inadequate protection or moved too slowly on repairs. The measure covers fuel, energy, industrial, communications, transport and logistics facilities. Officials said the policy is intended to address specific security problems rather than broadly nationalize private companies, according to Reuters’ account of the decree.

Buyers are moving beyond standalone radar

The change is not limited to the number of systems being purchased. Customers are increasingly selecting integrated facility-protection packages rather than individual radars. The configurations described combine radar, optical cameras and radio-frequency sensors, sending their information to a common control center.

Each sensor contributes a different type of observation. Radar can provide broad detection and tracking data, cameras can support visual assessment, and radio-frequency equipment can identify relevant emissions when they are present. Bringing those feeds into one control layer gives operators a more coherent picture than isolated equipment can provide. It also makes software integration, data correlation and interface reliability central purchasing considerations.

This systems approach changes the industrial opportunity. A standalone sensor is a bounded hardware purchase; an integrated installation adds control software, communications links, installation work and continuing support. It also creates more demanding engineering requirements because components from different suppliers must exchange timely, usable information without overwhelming operators with disconnected alerts.

The same integration challenge extends beyond Russia. NATO’s Layered Counter-Uncrewed Aircraft Systems Initiative is testing how sensors and command-and-control elements from different nations and manufacturers can exchange information. That program is military-focused, but it illustrates the broader technical issue facing any large counter-drone installation: assembling equipment is easier than making every element operate as a dependable system.

High component costs raise the reliability stakes

Industry expert Pavel Kamnev estimates that individual components can cost tens or sometimes hundreds of millions of rubles. At that price level, customers are buying more than detection hardware. They need installations that can be maintained, updated and expanded as drone designs and operating conditions change.

Andrey Lebedev of Transport of the Future attributes the market’s expansion to the widening geographic reach and increasing intensity of attacks on civilian infrastructure. He also says changes in drone technology are forcing countermeasure manufacturers to improve their products. Alexander Zamyatin, head of strategic projects at GLONASS, estimates that the Russian anti-drone-equipment market has expanded tenfold by 2026 and that commercial buyers already represent at least half of demand.

A representative of the Loktar military-technical project estimates that Russian-made systems account for as much as 80% of the domestic market by value. Combined with Rosel’s multiyear backlog, that suggests suppliers face a manufacturing and support challenge as well as a sales opportunity. Delivering integrated systems requires sufficient sensor production, installation capacity, software support and trained personnel across geographically dispersed facilities.

Industry representatives expect demand to persist after the war as civilian drone use expands and counter-drone equipment becomes part of broader security infrastructure. Whether the market reaches Rosel’s projected 67 billion rubles in 2027 will depend on procurement translating into deployed, supportable systems not merely larger collections of expensive sensors.

By Stephen Wallace — Editor for AMI’s aerospace integration and unmanned mobility coverage, focused on drone manufacturing, VTOL systems, autonomous networks, and air-ground mobility links.